Burnley v Manchester City preview

Burnley will welcome back Ashley Westwood from suspension for the Premier League clash against Manchester City on Tuesday night.

Westwood missed Saturday’s home defeat to Crystal Palace after picking up a fifth booking of the season, but returns to a midfield in which Danny Drinkwater is pushing for a start.
Charlie Taylor is an injury doubt after being forced off against Palace while Johann Berg Gudmundsson is not yet fit after a hamstring problem.
The Clarets sit comfortable in mid-table, but will be looking to bounce back following a disappointing defeat against the Eagles at the weekend.
City also need a positive result as they attempt to stay in touch with Premier League leaders Liverpool, who currently hold an 11-point advantage over Pep Guardiola’s men.
The Blues were held to a 2-2 draw against Newcastle at the weekend and they also remain three points behind Leicester City, who occupy second place.
City will make one enforced change with midfielder Ilkay Gundogan suspended after accumulating five bookings this season.
Record goalscorer Sergio Aguero and left-back Oleksandr Zinchenko are not yet ready to return as they struggle with thigh and knee injuries respectively.
Winger Leroy Sane and centre-back Aymeric Laporte are both long-term absentees with knee injuries.
Despite sitting so far behind Liverpool, Guardiola is determined to fight on and recognises the importance of claiming victory against a tough Burnley side.
“They have to believe we will win tomorrow. That is the fact,” he said. “In the situation we are we cannot think about the people who are in front. We have to think about what we have to do to win the games.
“It is always difficult for all teams (at Burnley). What they do they do perfectly. We need to adapt to their style and play our way.”
Guardiola has also ruled out the possibility of moving Fernandinho further forward, and he will remain in central defence at Turf Moor.

Burnley v Manchester City

As their title defence continues to falter, surely only the brave will want to be on Manchester City at 1/4 ahead of their tricky trip to Burnley.

888sport pre-match odds: Burnley 12/1; Draw 11/2; Man City 2/9

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After the unprecedented standards they’ve set in the last two seasons, perhaps it was inevitable a dip would come but few expected them to be 11 points behind Liverpool after just 14 games.

In their last 10 games, they’ve lost at home to Wolves and away at Norwich, while on Saturday they were held 2-2 by Newcastle.

They remain without the injured Sergio Aguero - the suspended Ilkay Gundogan joins him on the sidelines for this one – but their biggest problems have been at the back.

That’s summed up by the fact they’ve let in nine goals in their last five away games, including three at both Norwich and Liverpool.

They will likely dominate possession here but when Burnley do have the ball, expect them to throw crosses into the box in a bid to expose those defensive weaknesses.

They have a good man to do that too. Dwight McNeil has enjoyed an excellent 2019, and he has nine assists in 32 Premier League games in his fledgling career. He’s 6/1 (bet365) to assist here.

With Chris Wood and Ashley Barnes having both regularly found the target this term, Burnley also have goals in them.

City will probably still get the job done – Burnley have taken just one point from a possible 18 against teams currently in the top half – but don’t expect them to have things all their own way.

Getting with Burnley at a big price in some way looks worth a punt and backing Chris Wood for the first goal may reward at 12/1.

He’s netted six times in his last seven appearances and had good chances to add to that tally against Palace at the weekend.

Best bet

Chris Wood to score first – 12/1 with bet365

All prices correct at time of writing and are subject to change

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Simulation

There is a 22.3% chance of a draw. In simulations where the game is not a draw Manchester City, at 62.6%, are heavy favorites to beat Burnley who have just a 15.1% chance to win at home. Overall, the average simulation score is Manchester City 1.9 to Burnley 0.8. In simulation wins, Burnley upsets Manchester City by averaging 7.4 shots and 3.4 shots on goal. They average 2.0 goals in simulated victories vs just 0.5 in simulation losses.